- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on August 29?>99¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent observational data from National Weather Service stations, including Central Park, confirm the minimum temperature in New York City on August 29 reached 64–65 °F amid a cool, stable air mass with light southwest winds and clear to partly cloudy skies overnight. This aligns with the market-implied odds of 100 percent, reflecting traders' assessment of verified measurements against the climatological average low of 66.4 °F and recent nightly minima in the low-to-mid 60s. Model guidance and surface analyses showed no significant warm advection or urban heat island effects that would elevate the reading. Only a substantial revision in official station data or redefinition of the measurement period could alter the outcome, though such changes remain improbable given standard protocols.