- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on August 25?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on August 25?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on August 25?18¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on August 25?84¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance shows New York City overnight lows settling near 63–66 °F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies on August 25, aligning closely with the market’s 91 % implied probability for a 66–67 °F minimum at LaGuardia. This outcome reflects seasonal norms for late August, when radiational cooling under light winds and moderate humidity typically produces minima in the mid-60s, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 67 °F. Model consensus remains tight, with no incoming cold-air advection or significant cloud cover expected to alter the trajectory. Only a sharper-than-forecast nocturnal temperature drop—perhaps from an unadvertised boundary or station-specific microclimate effects—could realistically push readings into the low-60s and shift the resolution.