- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 23?>99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus for New York City indicate a minimum temperature of 68–69°F on August 23, aligning with the market's 99.5% implied probability for that bin. This reflects late-August climatology, with typical overnight lows near 66–70°F under prevailing high-pressure patterns and light winds that limit radiative cooling. Official observations from Central Park and regional stations, combined with short-range model runs showing minimal deviation, underpin trader confidence. A realistic shift to lower bins would require unforecasted clear skies, calm conditions, or a stronger cold-air advection event, while warmer outcomes would need sustained southerly flow or urban heat-island enhancement exceeding current guidance.