- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on August 22?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 22?14¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 22?81¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on August 22?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus heavily favors 70-71°F as the lowest temperature recorded in New York City on August 22, 2026, at 93.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from official National Weather Service observations at LaGuardia Airport showing a verified minimum of 70°F early on the 22nd, with Central Park and Newark readings aligning closely amid a cooler-than-average air mass, persistent cloud cover, and light easterly winds that limited radiational cooling overnight. Ensemble model guidance and NWS forecasts consistently projected lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, with actual conditions tracking near the higher end of that range due to elevated dew points and humidity. Historical August lows average around 67-68°F, but recent days featured stabilizing high pressure and marine influence that suppressed deeper drops. The outcome could shift only if post-verification adjustments from primary stations or measurement discrepancies emerge, though such revisions remain improbable given the tight clustering of observations.