- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on August 21?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on August 21?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on August 21?9¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on August 21?16¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on August 21?65¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on August 21?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for the lowest NYC temperature on August 21 centers on the mid-60s, with 66-67°F commanding 61.5% implied probability. Official forecasts from AccuWeather and National Weather Service sources indicate overnight lows in the 63–68°F range, driven by widespread cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds that limit radiative cooling after sunset. Current observations show temperatures hovering near 63–64°F under cloudy skies, consistent with a daily minimum settling in the mid-60s rather than the seasonal average low near 67°F. Model consensus points to modest cooling from marine influence and lingering moisture, without a strong cold front or clear skies that would push readings lower. Historical analogs for late-August nights under similar conditions rarely drop below 64°F in the city. With resolution tied to the official LaGuardia Airport reading, traders are pricing the narrow window around the expected minimum, while lower buckets (64–65°F at 27%) capture residual uncertainty in the final hours of cooling.