- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on August 20?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on August 20?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on August 20?6¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 20?39¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 20?42¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 20?33¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 20?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 20?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on August 20?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for New York City on August 20 positions the daily minimum near 68–69°F, aligning with the market’s leading 56% implied probability for that bin. Persistent high humidity, overnight cloud cover from scattered showers, and moderating southwest flow limit radiational cooling below typical mid-August climatological lows near 67°F at Central Park. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty around sea-breeze timing and any brief clearing, keeping 66–67°F and 70–71°F outcomes as secondary possibilities at 15.5% and 20.5%. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast from the latest model runs, with resolution hinging on official observations from LaGuardia or Central Park stations.