Lowest temperature in NYC on August 16?
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on August 16?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on August 16?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on August 16?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 16?14¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 16?27¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 16?61¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 16?6¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 16?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 16?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 16?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on August 16?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for the lowest NYC temperature on August 16, 2026, centers on 72–73°F (51% implied probability) because current forecasts and seasonal patterns point to an overnight low in the low 70s rather than a sharper drop. NYC’s mid-August climatological minimum at Central Park averages near 70°F, supported by warm Gulf moisture, elevated dew points, and the urban heat island that reduces radiative cooling overnight. Recent model guidance and observations from August 15 show temperatures holding in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy skies and light winds, with no strong cold advection or clear, calm conditions that would allow deeper cooling. AccuWeather and NWS outlooks for the period keep overnight lows between roughly 69–72°F, aligning with the market’s top two bins (70–73°F collectively near 77.5%). Lower outcomes remain discounted because a significant cool surge or unusually efficient radiational cooling would be required to reach the mid-60s, which current atmospheric conditions do not support. Upcoming NWS forecast updates and early-morning observations will be the key data releases that could shift probabilities before the market resolves.