Lowest temperature in NYC on August 15?
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on August 15?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on August 15?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on August 15?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on August 15?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on August 15?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on August 15?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 15?10¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 15?89¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 15?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 15?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on August 15?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model consensus indicates a minimum temperature in New York City on August 15 most likely between 70°F and 73°F, driven by mild overnight conditions under northeast flow with limited radiational cooling. This aligns with the market's dominant 70–71°F outcome at 84% implied probability, reflecting trader assessment of current observations and short-range guidance showing temperatures holding near or slightly above seasonal normals around 70°F. Stable high pressure and absence of significant cold-air advection or cloud cover have prevented sharper drops, while historical Central Park data place typical August lows near 70°F. With resolution based on official end-of-day readings, any last-minute model shifts in dew points or wind could influence final bins but appear unlikely to push probabilities toward the low single-digit outcomes below 68°F.