- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on August 26?7¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 9°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 10°C on August 26?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 11°C on August 26?17¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 12°C on August 26?85¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 13°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 14°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 15°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on August 26?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS, NOAA-aligned services, and European agencies points to a mild overnight minimum in Munich driven by high pressure (around 1018 hPa), light easterly winds, and partly to mostly cloudy skies that limit strong radiative cooling. Dew points near 14–15°C and humidity levels of 70–90% overnight act as a buffer, while the absence of cold-air advection or clear-sky conditions keeps temperatures from dropping sharply. Current observations show morning readings around 13–16°C with daytime highs climbing to 25–27°C, consistent with late-August climatology for the region (typical August lows near 13–15°C). Traders have priced the 12°C outcome at 84% implied probability because updated short-range models and real-time surface data suggest the overnight low could settle 1–2°C below the initial 14–15°C guidance due to localized cooling under variable cloud cover. The 11°C bin at 16.5% captures residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing or microscale variations, while sub-10°C or 14°C+ outcomes remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern and lack of incoming fronts. New model runs and official station reports from Munich International Airport will refine the final recorded low before market resolution.