- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or below on August 21?46¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on August 21?31¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on August 21?32¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on August 21?34¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on August 21?34¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on August 21?34¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 21?34¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 21?21¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 19°C or higher on August 21?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center point to an overnight low near 12°C in Moscow on August 21, 2026, with regional values possibly reaching 9°C under clearer conditions or lighter winds. This aligns closely with the long-term average minimum of about 12°C for the date and follows recent nights with similar readings around 11–14°C amid variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Model spreads and radiative cooling potential under partly clear skies support the elevated market-implied odds for 9°C or below, while warmer scenarios remain limited by the prevailing westerly flow and seasonal cooling trend. Updated model runs and local observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.