- Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 17°C on August 24?>99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 18°C on August 24?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus heavily favors 17°C as the lowest temperature in Milan on August 24, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects agreement across numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from ECMWF and GFS, showing overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow typical of the Po Valley in late summer. Current observations place the minimum near this threshold after daytime highs reached 29–31°C, with dew points and humidity supporting modest nocturnal temperature drops without significant cold advection. Official station data from sites like Milano Linate align with this range amid stable high-pressure dominance. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include stronger-than-expected clear-sky radiative cooling or an unforecasted shift in wind patterns introducing cooler air, though model consensus and proximity to day's end limit such deviations.