- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on August 23?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on August 23?>99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders have converged on the 78-79°F outcome at essentially 100% implied probability because official National Weather Service observations and model guidance for Miami International Airport aligned closely with typical late-August subtropical nighttime conditions. High atmospheric moisture, light winds, and persistent cloud cover from the Bermuda High suppressed radiational cooling, keeping the minimum near the seasonal normal of roughly 78°F. Recent model runs showed minimal variability across ensemble members, with no cold fronts or dry-air intrusions to drive lower readings. A narrow set of scenarios, such as an unforecast clear-sky period allowing enhanced outgoing longwave radiation or a localized sensor anomaly at the reporting station, could have altered the result, yet none materialized in the verified data.