- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on August 24?27¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on August 24?27¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on August 24?80¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 28°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Atlantic frontal passage over central Spain, with associated cloud cover, weak precipitation, and southwesterly flow, has driven the market's tight clustering around 18–21 °C for Madrid's minimum on 24 August. AEMET guidance and GFS/ECMWF runs indicate overnight lows near 19–21 °C after daytime maxima of only 27–28 °C, cooler than the 18.7 °C climatological average owing to reduced radiational cooling under persistent cloud. Trader weighting toward the 18 °C-or-below outcome (42 %) reflects residual model spread on exact clearing time and urban versus airport measurement differences, while the 21 °C bucket (38 %) captures the base-case forecast. Real-time station data from AEMET will resolve the market once the nocturnal minimum is recorded.