- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on September 7?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on September 7?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on September 7?36¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on September 7?60¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mild southwesterly flow and lingering warmth from a recent high-pressure system are keeping London's overnight minimum temperature on September 7 anchored near 17–18 °C. Official Met Office guidance and multiple numerical models indicate a low around 14–17 °C under partly cloudy skies, with limited radiative cooling due to cloud cover and urban heat-island effects. Recent days featured above-average warmth peaking near 26 °C on September 6, allowing residual heat to moderate the following night. Market-implied odds heavily favor 17 °C (43.5 %) or 18 °C (56.5 %), reflecting trader consensus that actual recorded minima at standard stations such as Heathrow will settle at the upper end of forecast ranges rather than cooler outliers. Lower probabilities assigned to 16 °C or below align with the low chance of clearer skies or northerly winds that could enhance cooling before dawn. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings through the morning will provide the final data points for resolution.