- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on September 4?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on September 4?25¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on September 4?41¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on September 4?25¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Met Office and ECMWF forecast runs point to light winds, clear skies, and a stable Atlantic air mass allowing moderate overnight radiative cooling, positioning London's lowest temperature on September 4 near 17°C as the most likely outcome. This matches the leading 40.5% market-implied probability, with 16°C and 18°C bins capturing the next most probable ranges under slight variations in cloud cover or humidity. Historical early-September baselines for London show typical overnight lows of 12–15°C, but current model consensus favors milder conditions without strong cold advection. Updated model guidance and Met Office briefings later today will provide the final inputs before the overnight minimum is recorded.