- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 31?>99¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official meteorological observations from London-area stations, including Heathrow, recorded a minimum air temperature of 15°C on August 31, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and dew points near 11–13°C. This aligns with the market's near-100% implied probability for 15°C as the daily low, reflecting trader consensus grounded in real-time station data rather than models. Nighttime radiative cooling was moderated by urban heat island effects and residual moisture, preventing a drop to the climatological average low of roughly 13°C. Lower outcomes such as 11°C or 13°C carry negligible probability because no verified reports approached those thresholds. Resolution could shift only if final quality-controlled datasets from the Met Office or equivalent agencies revise the minimum downward due to station-specific anomalies or measurement adjustments, though such revisions are uncommon after initial reporting.