- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 30?7¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 30?45¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 30?46¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 30?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Met Office guidance and supporting model runs point to an overnight minimum of 15–16 °C for London on 30 August, with the market’s near-even split between 16 °C (44 %) and 17 °C (43 %) reflecting residual uncertainty in boundary-layer processes. Westerly flow and scattered showers early in the period are expected to give way to partial clearing after midnight, allowing some radiative cooling under light winds; however, any lingering cloud or slightly stronger gusts would limit the drop. Ensemble spreads show most solutions clustered between 15 °C and 17 °C, with only a small tail below 15 °C, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to cooler outcomes. Updated model runs tonight will tighten the range ahead of resolution.