- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 27?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 27?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 27?24¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 27?70¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from the Met Office and other models position 18–19°C as the most likely minimum in London on August 27, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and warm southerly flow ahead of clearing thunderstorms that limit overnight radiative cooling. These conditions have kept early-morning readings near 17–19°C, above the late-August climatological average of roughly 14–15°C. Traders assign over 90% combined probability to these two outcomes, reflecting consensus across official guidance that the day’s low will hold in this narrow band rather than falling to 17°C or below. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the morning will determine whether any brief clearing allows a dip closer to 18°C before daytime recovery.