- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 25?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 25?40¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 25?47¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official Met Office forecasts for London on August 25 project overnight lows of 16–18°C under initially clear skies transitioning to increasing cloud cover and light easterly winds, with dew points near 11–13°C limiting further cooling. Recent observational data from Heathrow and central stations show recent nights bottoming at 10.7–12.7°C, but warmer advection and reduced radiative cooling tonight tighten the expected minimum to the 15–16°C band. Model consensus and historical August climatology support this narrow range, driving the closely matched market-implied odds of 44.5% for 16°C and 38.5% for 15°C while leaving lower outcomes at minimal probability.