- Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 24?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on August 24?95¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 24?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official Met Office observations and Heathrow Airport data show London’s overnight minimum stabilizing near 13°C early on August 24 under clear, calm easterly flow, with surface temperatures bottoming at approximately 13°C around dawn before gradual daytime warming to the low 20s. Model consensus supports limited nocturnal cooling given high pressure, dew points near 9–11°C, and light winds that prevent rapid radiative losses. This underpins the market’s overwhelming 95.5% implied probability for a 13°C daily low. A realistic challenge would require an unforecast late-night drop below the observed floor—unlikely unless a localized radiative cooling pocket or measurement revision occurs before midnight.