- Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on August 23?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 23?10¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on August 23?26¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 23?43¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 23?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market-implied odds favor a narrow range around 13–14°C as the lowest temperature recorded in London on August 23, 2026. Traders see these outcomes as nearly equally likely because official forecasts and model guidance converge on a minimum in that band under current high-pressure conditions. Clear skies and light winds overnight promote radiative cooling, with surface temperatures dropping most rapidly after midnight when outgoing longwave radiation exceeds incoming solar input. The urban heat island effect in central London typically adds 1–3°C relative to rural sites, moderating the low compared with surrounding countryside where Met Office guidance notes potential minima near 9°C. Dew points around 9–11°C limit further cooling once saturation is approached, while weak southwesterly flow prevents strong cold-air advection. Recent model runs show only minor differences in cloud cover or wind timing that could shift the exact low by 1°C, keeping 13°C and 14°C probabilities closely matched. No significant weather systems have altered the pattern in the past 48 hours, so the market reflects consensus on these stable late-summer conditions rather than any abrupt change.