- Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 20?27¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 20?69¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on August 20?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast models from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate overnight lows in London on August 20 will likely settle between 14–16 °C, driven by a mild Atlantic air mass, light winds, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 15 °C and 16 °C outcomes. August 2026 has featured minimum temperatures 1–1.5 °C above the 13 °C climatological average, with recent model runs showing only modest day-to-day variability and low risk of clearer skies that could drop readings further. Updated guidance ahead of the early-morning minimum will be the key catalyst for any shift in implied probabilities.