- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on August 19?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 19?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 19?99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on August 19?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official forecasts from the Met Office and supporting agencies indicate a minimum temperature of 16–17°C for London on August 19, driven by a mild westerly flow, overnight cloud cover, and light rain clearing by dawn that limits radiative cooling. Historical August climatology places typical overnight lows near 14–15°C, but current conditions—persistent mild air advection and limited clear-sky periods—support the higher baseline. Model consensus shows little divergence on this range, with traders assigning 97% implied probability to 17°C as the floor. A sharper-than-expected break in cloud cover or stronger northerly advection could push readings toward 15°C or below, though such shifts appear unlikely before resolution based on the latest guidance.