- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on September 5?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 5?10¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 5?39¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 5?47¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 5?7¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models points to overnight lows near 26–27°C on September 5, driven by persistent cloud cover, light showers, and moderate humidity around 70–95% under weak west-to-southwest winds. These conditions limit radiational cooling compared to clearer nights, while residual moisture from prior systems and distant tropical cyclone influences sustain elevated minimums. Slight model differences in cloud timing and wind shifts create the near-even split between 26°C and 27°C outcomes, with lower probabilities for 25°C or below reflecting limited cooling potential. Updated observational data and refined model runs through the evening will refine the exact minimum ahead of market resolution.