- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 31?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 31?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 31?27¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 31?73¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and consistent model guidance pin the minimum temperature for August 31, 2026, at 27°C, aligning with the 73% market-implied probability for that outcome. A broad trough of low pressure maintains unsettled, humid conditions with cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms across the region. These factors limit nighttime radiative cooling under high humidity (75–95%) and light to moderate northerly winds, preventing temperatures from dropping to typical late-August levels around 25°C. Current overnight readings near 27–28°C at urban stations, combined with ongoing moisture and cloudiness, support a minimum no lower than 27°C. Secondary probabilities for 26°C (15.5%) reflect minor downside risk if showers briefly clear, while outcomes at or below 25°C remain low-probability outliers given the stable pattern. No significant model divergences or rapid changes have emerged in the latest updates, keeping trader consensus tightly clustered around the HKO forecast.