- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 28?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 28?13¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 28?20¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 28?65¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on August 28?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory position 28°C as the expected overnight minimum for August 28, driving its 62% market-implied probability. Persistent southerly flow, high relative humidity (70-95%), and cloud cover from occasional showers and thunderstorms limit nocturnal radiative cooling, consistent with the 28-32°C daily range. Recent heavy thundery rain on August 27 has maintained elevated dew points and soil moisture, further supporting this floor. The developing El Niño backdrop favors normal-to-above-normal August temperatures overall, reducing odds of significant cooling. Lower outcomes like 27°C (21.5%) remain plausible if showers intensify overnight, while probabilities drop sharply below that due to the current steering pattern and lack of stronger northerly influence. Updated HKO guidance and regional model runs tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalysts.