This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate minimum temperatures of 27–28°C on August 23 amid typical subtropical summer conditions, with scattered showers, high humidity near 80–90%, and light northeasterly winds moderating overnight cooling. Seasonal outlooks for normal to above-normal temperatures align with historical August lows averaging 26–27°C, while recent days have seen persistent warmth without significant frontal passages or stronger monsoon surges that could push readings lower. These factors create tight market-implied odds between 27°C and 28°C, as traders weigh model consensus on limited diurnal temperature range against potential variability from localized rainfall or cloud cover.