- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 21?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 21?6¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 21?47¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 21?40¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 21?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 21?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on August 21?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus around 26°C (47% implied probability) and 27°C (39.5%) for Hong Kong's August 21 minimum stems primarily from numerical weather models and Hong Kong Observatory guidance projecting overnight lows near those thresholds amid typical late-summer monsoon conditions. Persistent high humidity, light winds, and expected cloud cover or showers limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated relative to drier seasons, while seasonal outlooks indicate normal to above-normal warmth overall. The tight spread between these outcomes highlights forecast uncertainty in exact timing of any clearing or precipitation, with upcoming model updates offering potential refinement before resolution. Historical August minima average near 27°C, consistent with current atmospheric patterns favoring this narrow band over cooler or warmer extremes.