Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on August 15?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 15?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 15?19¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 15?37¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 15?32¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?6¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 15?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on August 15?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 27°C on August 15, 2026, under mainly cloudy conditions with scattered showers and southwesterly winds of force 3–4. This places the market’s leading outcomes (26°C at 37.5% and 27°C at 32%) in close alignment with the official 27–32°C range and recent climatological minima near 27.8°C. Persistent subtropical moisture, high humidity, and extensive cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows elevated. Scattered thunderstorms and showers further suppress temperature drops by enhancing downward heat transfer. No cold advection or frontal passage is expected, maintaining the typical August thermal regime. The narrow spread between 26°C and 27°C reflects minor uncertainties in local urban heat-island effects, exact shower timing, and short-range model variations in boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to weigh the official forecast heavily while assigning modest probability to a slightly cooler outlier if clearer skies or lighter winds develop overnight.