Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on August 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 14?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 14?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 14?25¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 14?36¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 14?16¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 14?20¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on August 14?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a lowest temperature of 26–27°C on August 14 in Hong Kong, reflecting the typical subtropical summer nocturnal range of 26–28°C amid normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperatures forecasted by the Hong Kong Observatory. Primary drivers include persistent high humidity, limited radiational cooling in the urban environment, and expected cloud cover or showers that moderate overnight drops. Current model consensus points to a minimum near 27°C, consistent with climatological baselines for mid-August when daily lows rarely fall below 25°C without significant frontal activity. Recent data showing stable atmospheric conditions and no incoming cooler air mass have reinforced this outlook, keeping lower outcomes below 10% probability while limiting upside for warmer minima. Updated local forecasts and any overnight observations will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.