- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C or below on September 5?33¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on September 5?67¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on September 5?33¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on September 5?33¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from NOAA and Chinese meteorological agencies indicate a clear, stable night over Chengdu with minimal cloud cover and light southerly winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 23°C. This positions 21°C as the market leader at 66% implied probability, as traders weigh typical urban heat island effects and slight model cooling biases against the baseline September climatology for the Sichuan basin. Nearby outcomes at 19–20°C and 18°C or below attract secondary support around 33% each due to potential localized radiative cooling in suburban stations or minor forecast revisions. Higher thresholds above 24°C remain near 0.1%, reflecting the low likelihood of warmer nights under current high-pressure dominance. Official station data releases later today will determine resolution, with traders closely monitoring any last-hour adjustments from surface observations.