- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be -2°C or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be -1°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 0°C on August 23?>99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 1°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 2°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 3°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 4°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 5°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 6°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C or higher on August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models (ECMWF, GFS) show a polar air mass advected northward behind a Patagonian cold front, driving overnight radiative cooling and pushing the minimum temperature in Buenos Aires to 0 °C on August 23. Model consensus is tight around this threshold, with minimal spread in guidance and no significant warm-air advection or cloud cover to moderate the drop. This aligns with climatological patterns for late-winter cold outbreaks, when southerly winds can briefly bring sub-freezing surface temperatures despite seasonal averages near 8–10 °C. Trader positioning reflects high confidence in the official observation matching the forecast, as the event is now complete. Only a substantial revision in post-event quality-controlled data or an unrecognized urban heat-island effect could realistically shift the recorded low above or below 0 °C.