- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on August 27?28¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on August 27?30¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on August 27?26¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on August 27?27¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on August 27?36¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast uncertainty around overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered rain drives the tightly bunched Polymarket odds near 17–22°C for Beijing’s August 27 minimum. Recent heavy rainfall on the 25th–26th has increased soil moisture and lowered afternoon highs, limiting daytime heat storage while suppressing clear-sky cooling; forecasters differ on whether lingering clouds and light northeasterly flow keep the low near the 20.2°C climatological average or allow a dip to 17–18°C if breaks develop after midnight. China Meteorological Administration model runs and updated guidance expected through the evening will clarify precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing, directly shifting implied probabilities among the clustered outcomes.