- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on August 25?>99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for the "Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 25" market shows overwhelming consensus at 21°C or below (100.0% implied probability), driven by real-time forecast convergence and observational data indicating a minimum at or below this threshold. Official guidance and model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to overnight cooling under cloudy, humid conditions with scattered thunderstorms and light winds, suppressing radiative cooling less than expected but still holding the low near or under seasonal norms of ~21–22°C. Current observations and late-day updates reflect temperatures tracking toward the lower end of the 21–24°C range projected across sources, with traders assigning virtually no probability to outcomes above 21°C due to the skin-in-the-game alignment of forecasts. This positioning aligns with late-August climatology, where persistent moisture and cloud cover from the East Asian monsoon pattern typically moderates nighttime lows. A realistic challenge would require a rapid shift to clearer skies or advection of warmer air overnight, but with resolution imminent and models stable, such divergence remains low-probability.