- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be 67°F or below on September 5?9¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on September 5?33¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on September 5?15¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on September 5?95¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Austin be 86°F or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to clear skies and light southeast winds overnight, enabling efficient radiational cooling that supports a minimum temperature in the low 70s across Austin stations. Persistent high pressure and above-average dew points from recent Gulf moisture have kept overnight lows several degrees above the long-term September average of 71°F, yet model consensus has converged on 72–73°F as the most probable outcome. Traders assign 95% implied probability to this range because any increase in cloud cover or wind speed could raise the minimum by 2–4°F, while drier air or stronger cooling would be required to reach 70°F or below. Updated evening observations and the next model run will determine whether this consensus holds through resolution.