- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or below on August 27?>99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 27°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Clear skies and dry late-summer conditions over Ankara are driving strong overnight radiative cooling, with multiple official and model forecasts showing the temperature falling to 16–18 °C during the early morning hours of 27 August 2026. This places the daily minimum at or below 17 °C with high confidence, consistent with the 99.6 % market-implied probability for that outcome and near the long-term August average low of roughly 17 °C. Surface observations and short-range guidance indicate light northerly winds and low humidity that favor continued heat loss through the night. The only realistic way the low could exceed 17 °C would be an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a shift in wind direction bringing warmer air from the south or west, neither of which is supported by current model consensus.