- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C or higher on September 4?0¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C or below on September 4?0¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on September 4?100¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 4?0¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs, positions a minimum near 16°C as the most likely outcome for Amsterdam on September 4, 2026, driven by persistent mild westerly flow, cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, and dew points supporting overnight temperatures in the mid-teens Celsius. This aligns with observed lows of 15.3°C on the prior two days and exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.9°C for the date. Trader consensus at 83% implied probability for 16°C reflects these conditions, while lower-probability outcomes for 15°C or below would require clearer skies or a sharper wind shift not currently indicated in official guidance. Updated station observations from KNMI will determine the final recorded minimum.