Likud Party Primary Winner
- Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?63¢
- Will Nir Barkat win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?<1¢
- Will Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?19¢
- Will Israel Katz win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?<1¢
- Will Yariv Levin win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?18¢
- Will Moshe Saada win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?1¢
- Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?1¢
- Will David Amsalem win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?<1¢
- Will Miki Zohar win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?<1¢
- Will Boaz Bismuth win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?1¢
- Will Almog Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?<1¢
- Will Amichai Chikli win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?<1¢
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Amir Ohana leads the 2026 Likud party primary market at 62.5% implied probability ahead of the August 17 vote, which will help shape the candidate list for the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polling among registered Likud members shows Ohana with strong support around 73%, reflecting his established position as Knesset Speaker and alignment with core party voters. Netanyahu’s secured eight reserved slots in the top ranks have narrowed the number of open primary positions, intensifying competition for the remaining realistic slots while preserving primary influence over much of the slate. Other contenders including Tally Gotliv and Yariv Levin register lower trader consensus at 19% and 18.4%, consistent with their narrower bases among loyal members despite some backing from broader or wavering voters. Markets assign negligible odds to cancellation or delay of the primary itself. The structure of the vote—limited to long-term members and focused on national list placements—amplifies the impact of recent internal approvals and member surveys in positioning current frontrunners.