- Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?51¢51%
- Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?35¢35%
- Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?<1¢<1%
- Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?<1¢<1%
- Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?<1¢<1%
- Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?<1¢<1%
- Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?<1¢<1%
- Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?<1¢<1%
- Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?<1¢<1%
Goldman Sachs holds a narrow edge over Morgan Stanley in the lead bank market for OpenAI’s eventual IPO because both firms have served as primary bookrunners since the company’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and its ongoing $30 billion bridge round. Recent precedent from Anthropic’s October 26 S-1, which formally named Goldman lead left and Morgan Stanley stabilization agent, has reinforced trader consensus around Goldman’s allocation influence in large AI listings. The 45.5%–39.5% implied probabilities reflect this tight competition, with limited roles for other banks in supporting capacities. Key swing factors include OpenAI’s next regulatory disclosures and any shifts in lead-left designation ahead of a 2027 listing.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.