- Will Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?48¢
- Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?5¢
- Will Nacionālā Apvienība (NA) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?2¢
- Will Stabilitātei! (ST!) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?20¢
- Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?26¢
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
AS leads trader odds at 47% as the frontrunner for most seats in the October 3, 2026 Saeima election, consistent with SKDS and other polls showing it at 17–19% support. Its position strengthened after the collapse of the prior JV-led coalition and formation of a new cabinet under Andris Kulbergs of AS. SV and LPV follow at 26% and 20% amid rising backing for populist and sovereignist options, while PRO, NA, and JV trail with single-digit or lower shares reflecting fragmented voter preferences and the 5% threshold. No party is projected to secure an outright majority, so outcomes hinge on final turnout and late shifts in undecided voters.