Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place
- Will Adilet win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?<1¢
- Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?78¢
- Will Respublica win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?9¢
- Will Aq Jol win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?11¢
- Will QHP win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?<1¢
- Will JSDP win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?3¢
- Will Baytaq win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Kurultai of Kazakhstan are scheduled to take place on August 23, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-most number of seats in the Kurultai of Kazakhstan as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Kazakh government.
Auyl's strong positioning for second place in Kazakhstan's August 23 Kurultai election reflects its consistent second-place finish in the 2023 parliamentary vote at 10.9 percent, combined with its established agrarian and rural-development platform. Campaign activity since late July has seen Auyl emphasize rural healthcare, agricultural support, infrastructure, and regional entrepreneurship, aligning with its voter base in a proportional representation system for the new 145-seat unicameral legislature. The pro-presidential Adilet party, bolstered by its mid-June merger with the former ruling Amanat, is widely expected to secure a clear majority, leaving limited room for other parties to challenge Auyl's placement. Smaller or newer entrants such as Respublica, Aq Jol, and the People's Party of Kazakhstan trail in implied probability, with no recent polling shifts or major endorsements reported that would alter this ordering ahead of the vote.