James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
- Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?44¢
- Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?38¢
- Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?14¢
- Will James Fishback win 20–25% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?4¢
- Will James Fishback at least 30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?3¢
- Will James Fishback win 25–30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?2¢
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
James Fishback, a 31-year-old investment manager and outsider Republican, trails frontrunner Byron Donalds and other established figures like Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former Speaker Paul Renner in the August 18 Florida GOP primary. Recent July 2026 court rulings rejected residency challenges, keeping him on the ballot after a rival challenge. Polling averages place his support in the low single digits to around 12 percent, reflecting limited name recognition, lower fundraising compared to top contenders, and a crowded field of experienced candidates. Traders price his vote share mostly between under 10 percent and 15 percent based on these trends. A strong final debate performance, unexpected endorsements, or higher-than-expected turnout among his conservative base could shift his totals modestly before primary day.