ITFIvan Ivanov — Pavel Lagutin
Ivan IvanovPavel Lagutin- M25 Vale do Lobo: Ivan Ivanov vs Pavel Lagutin26¢26%
Pavel Lagutin enters this M25 Vale do Lobo quarterfinal as the clear favorite due to his higher ATP ranking (No. 390 versus Ivanov’s No. 459), stronger 2026 win rate (73 percent versus 56 percent), and superior career record on hard courts. The 21-year-old Russian has posted consistent results across recent ITF events, including multiple deep runs and a strong service-game efficiency that suits the faster surface. Ivanov, an 18-year-old Bulgarian junior standout, showed resilience to reach the quarters but carries a lower win percentage this season and lost their only prior meeting on clay earlier in 2026. Traders appear to weigh Lagutin’s ranking edge, recent form, and hard-court suitability as decisive, producing the 71 percent implied probability.
Rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Ivan Ivanov and Pavel Lagutin in the M25 Vale do Lobo, Main Draw, originally scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 10:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ivan Ivanov' if Ivan Ivanov advances against Pavel Lagutin. This market will resolve to 'Pavel Lagutin' if Pavel Lagutin advances against Ivan Ivanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.