- Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?94¢
- Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?96¢
- Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?96¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Syria by the specified date, 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Syria do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Syria” refers to the terrestrial territory of Syria, including its internal waters. Syria’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Syria as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Syria Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Syria and a consensus of credible reporting.
Israel has conducted repeated airstrikes and ground incursions in Syria since the December 2024 fall of the Assad regime, establishing a southern “security zone” beyond the former UN buffer line while conducting hundreds of operations to prevent hostile forces from approaching the Golan Heights. The most recent catalyst occurred on August 17–18, when Israeli aircraft struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib province, damaging runways to block what Jerusalem described as an imminent Turkish military deployment that would breach prior understandings with the Syrian government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Damascus and Ankara rejected the claim, and the United States condemned the action as an escalation while pursuing trilateral deconfliction talks. These events, alongside Netanyahu’s public warnings to Turkey and ongoing raids in Quneitra and Daraa, shape trader assessments of the likelihood and timing of additional Israeli military moves.