Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 11, 2026?<1¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 12, 2026?<1¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 13, 2026?30¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026?26¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 15, 2026?10¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 16, 2026?11¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 17, 2026?14¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 18, 2026?8¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 19, 2026?12¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 20, 2026?12¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026?9¢
- Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026?9¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict have driven repeated IRGC actions against commercial vessels, including missile and projectile strikes on noncompliant tankers using routes outside Iranian-approved lanes. Key recent incidents include attacks on multiple ships in early-to-mid July that prompted renewed US naval blockades and airstrikes, plus an August 8 strike on an ADNOC tanker and reported IRGC interventions on July 31. These developments occur against a backdrop of broken ceasefires, failed MOU implementation, and Iran-Oman talks on strait administration, with Iran-aligned Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping adding regional pressure. Trader sentiment on resolution dates reflects uncertainty over whether diplomatic progress or further escalations will produce additional verified targeting events before month-end deadlines.