Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?14¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran’s refusal to fully abandon domestic uranium enrichment remains the central barrier driving the 86.5% “No” probability. Iranian officials have repeatedly identified any complete halt as a red line in 2025–2026 talks with the United States, countering U.S. demands for zero enrichment or long-term dismantlement with proposals for limited, monitored programs on Iranian soil. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 show continued enrichment activity and stockpiles largely unchanged despite U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities earlier in the year. Recent technical talks and the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum addressed stockpile disposition and verification but produced no commitment to end enrichment by year-end. Traders therefore view a binding agreement meeting the market’s strict criteria as unlikely before December 31.