- Will the Republican Party win the IN-07 House seat?5¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the IN-07 House seat?95¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Democrat André Carson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election as the heavy favorite in Indiana's 7th Congressional District, an urban Indianapolis seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21 and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. The district's partisan composition, established voter patterns, and Carson's long incumbency underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95.2% Democratic probability. Republican nominee Patrick McAuley faces structural headwinds with limited recent shifts in the race. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major unforeseen development such as a health-related withdrawal, late scandal, or significant turnout surge, though the district's fundamentals have held steady through recent cycles.