IL-05 House Election Winner
- Will the Republican Party win the IL-05 House seat?5¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the IL-05 House seat?95¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Illinois's 5th congressional district, encompassing northern Chicago neighborhoods and nearby suburbs, has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, with the incumbent securing 69 percent in the 2024 general election. Mike Quigley, the sitting representative since 2009, won the March 2026 Democratic primary against multiple challengers and faces Republican nominee Tommy Hanson in the November general election. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Democrats reflects the district's partisan composition, limited Republican infrastructure, and absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals. A significant late development such as a major scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or unexpected national political shift would be required to alter the current positioning.