- Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?45¢
- Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢
- Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?55¢
- Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢
- Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢
- Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢
- Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
SpaceX's Starship program has completed 13 total flights through July 2026, with just two or three occurring in 2026 so far amid the transition to Version 3 vehicles featuring Raptor 3 engines and upgraded structures. Flight 13 on July 24 marked the first V3 orbital-class attempt with successful Starlink V3 satellite deployment, but the shift to a new block, combined with ongoing FAA licensing reviews and a single operational pad at Starbase, has constrained cadence. Plans target Flight 14 as the initial full orbital test in September, followed by incremental increases, yet regulatory limits, vehicle iteration, and production scaling keep rapid monthly launches unlikely through year-end. These factors underpin trader consensus around 5-6 total 2026 flights reaching space, with under 5 as a close alternative if delays persist.