How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?<1¢
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?33¢
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?66¢
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?2¢
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial shipping volumes at a small fraction of pre-crisis levels, with daily transits recently averaging around 8–14 vessels according to Kpler and LSEG data. Heightened risks from attacks, war-risk insurance premiums, and route approvals have prompted most operators to avoid the waterway or limit activity to approved Iranian or Omani corridors, directly supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward the 25–49 bracket for the week of August 10. Sporadic fluctuations, including single-day lows near three transits and modest weekly totals near 78 in early August, sustain the secondary probability on sub-25 outcomes while rendering higher ranges effectively negligible. Persistent diplomatic stalemate between Washington and Tehran, alongside ongoing naval presence and periodic incidents, continues to anchor trader expectations around these constrained ranges.